Publications

The following contains a list of all academic papers published in international, peer-reviewed journals originating from research within the ZK35 project.

Peer-reviewed

2025

  1. Chernis, T., Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., Koop, G., & Mitchell, J. (2025). Predictive density combination using Bayesian machine learning. International Economic Review.
  2. Darmian, K. A.-rahman Y., Abbaszadeh Darban, R., Kastner, G., & Elmenreich, W. (2025). A criterion for assessing obstacle-induced environmental complexity in multi-robot coverage exploration. PLOS ONE, 20(5), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0323112
  3. Gruber, L., & Kastner, G. (2025). Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends! International Journal of Forecasting, 41(4), 1589–1619. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.001
  4. Gruber, L., Kastner, G., Bhattacharya, A., Pati, D., Pillai, N., & Dunson, D. (2025). A note on simulation methods for the Dirichlet-Laplace prior (Correction). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 120(551), 2011–2014.
  5. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., Klieber, K., & Marcellino, M. (2025). Bayesian neural networks for macroeconomic analysis. Journal of Econometrics, 249, 105843.
  6. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., Klieber, K., & Marcellino, M. (2025). Machine learning the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks. Economics Letters, 250, 112260.
  7. Huber, F., Kastner, G., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2025). Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space models to predict equity excess returns. 68, 535–553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02437-3
  8. Parzer, R., Filzmoser, P., & Vana-Gür, L. (2025). Sparse Data-Driven Random Projection in Regression for High-Dimensional Data. Journal of Data Science, Statistics, and Visualisation, 5(5). https://doi.org/10.52933/jdssv.v5i5.138
  9. Vana-Gür, L., Visconti, E., Nenzi, L., Cadonna, A., & Kastner, G. (2025). Bayesian Machine Learning Meets Formal Methods: An Application to Spatio-Temporal Data. ACM Transactions on Probabilistic Machine Learning, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.1145/3708479
  10. Visconti, E., Tsigkanos, C., & Nenzi, L. (2025). Automated Monitoring of Web User Interfaces. ACM Trans. Web, 19(2). https://doi.org/10.1145/3708512

2024

  1. Clark, T. E., Huber, F., Koop, G., & Marcellino, M. (2024). Forecasting US inflation using Bayesian nonparametric models. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 18(2), 1421–1444. https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOAS1841
  2. Clark, T. E., Huber, F., Koop, G., Marcellino, M., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2024). Investigating growth-at-risk using a multicountry nonparametric quantile factor model. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2024.2310020
  3. Feldkircher, M., Gruber, L., Huber, F., & Kastner, G. (2024). Sophisticated and small versus simple and sizeable: When does it pay off to introduce drifting coefficients in Bayesian vector autoregressions? Journal of Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3121
  4. Griller, S., Huber, F., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2024). Financial markets and legal challenges to unconventional monetary policy. European Economic Review, 163, 104680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104680
  5. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., & Koop, G. (2024). Dynamic shrinkage priors for large time-varying parameter regressions using scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 28(2), 201–225. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2022-0077
  6. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., Marcellino, M., & Petz, N. (2024). Gaussian process vector autoregressions and macroeconomic uncertainty. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2024.2322089
  7. Huber, F., Onorante, L., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2024). Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(3), 1042–1054. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.09.003
  8. Khandait, T., Formica, F., Arcaini, P., Chotaliya, S., Fainekos, G., Hekal, A., Kundu, A., Lew, E., Loreti, M., Menghi, C., Nenzi, L., Pedrielli, G., Peltomäki, J., Porres, I., Ray, R., Soloviev, V., Visconti, E., Waga, M., & Zhang, Z. (2024). ARCH-COMP 2024 Category Report: Falsification. In G. Frehse & M. Althoff (Eds.), Proceedings of the 11th Int. Workshop on Applied Verification for Continuous and Hybrid Systems (Vol. 103, pp. 122–144). EasyChair. https://doi.org/10.29007/hgfv
  9. Pfarrhofer, M. (2024). Forecasts with Bayesian vector autoregressions under real time conditions. Journal of Forecasting, 43(3), 771–801. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3055
  10. Pigozzi, F., Nenzi, L., & Medvet, E. (2024). BUSTLE: a Versatile Tool for the Evolutionary Learning of STL Specifications from Data. Evolutionary Computation, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1162/evco_a_00347
  11. Prüser, J., & Huber, F. (2024). Nonlinearities in macroeconomic tail risk through the lens of big data quantile regressions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 39(2), 269–291. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3018
  12. Schwendinger, B., Schwendinger, F., & Vana, L. (2024). Holistic Generalized Linear Models. Journal of Statistical Software, 108(7), 1–49. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v108.i07
  13. Schwendinger, F., Vana, L., & Hornik, K. (2024). Readability prediction: How many features are necessary? Annals of Applied Statistics, 18(2), 1010–1034. https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOAS1820
  14. Visconti, E., Bartocci, E., Falcone, Y., & Nenzi, L. (2024). Adaptable Configuration of Decentralized Monitors. In V. Castiglioni & A. Francalanza (Eds.), Formal Techniques for Distributed Objects, Components, and Systems (pp. 197–217). Springer Nature Switzerland.

2023

  1. Clark, T. E., Huber, F., Koop, G., Marcellino, M., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2023). Tail forecasting with multivariate Bayesian additive regression trees. International Economic Review, 64(3), 979–1022. https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12619
  2. Dobe, O., Schupp, S., Bartocci, E., Bonakdarpour, B., Legay, A., Pajic, M., & Wang, Y. (2023). Lightweight Verification of Hyperproperties. International Symposium on Automated Technology for Verification and Analysis, 3–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-45332-8_1
  3. Fischer, M. M., Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2023). General Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(1), 69–87. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2936
  4. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., & Klieber, K. (2023). Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques. International Journal of Forecasting, 39(2), 901–921. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.03.002
  5. Huber, F., Kastner, G., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2023). Introducing shrinkage in heavy-tailed state space models to predict equity excess returns. Empirical Economics, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02437-3
  6. Huber, F., & Koop, G. (2023). Subspace shrinkage in conjugate Bayesian vector autoregressions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(4), 556–576. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2966
  7. Huber, F., Krisztin, T., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2023). A Bayesian panel vector autoregression to analyze the impact of climate shocks on high-income economies. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 17(2), 1543–1573. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AOAS1681
  8. Krisztin, T., & Piribauer, P. (2023). A joint spatial econometric model for regional FDI and output growth. Papers in Regional Science, 102(1), 87–107. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12714
  9. Nenzi, L., Bartocci, E., Bortolussi, L., Silvetti, S., & Loreti, M. (2023). MoonLight: a lightweight tool for monitoring spatio-temporal properties. International Journal on Software Tools for Technology Transfer, 25(4), 503–517. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10009-023-00710-5
  10. Pfarrhofer, M. (2023). Measuring international uncertainty using global vector autoregressions with drifting parameters. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(3), 770–793. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100521000663
  11. Piribauer, P., Glocker, C., & Krisztin, T. (2023). Beyond distance: The spatial relationships of European regional economic growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 155, 104735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104735

2022

  1. Feldkircher, M., Huber, F., Koop, G., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2022). Approximate Bayesian Inference and Forecasting in Huge-Dimensional Multicountry VarsityRs. International Economic Review, 63(4), 1625–1658. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12577
  2. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., Koop, G., & Onorante, L. (2022). Fast and Flexible Bayesian Inference in Time-varying Parameter Regression Models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Volume 40(4), 1904–1918. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2021.1990772
  3. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., Koop, G., & Onorante, L. (2022). Fast and flexible Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter regression models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 40(4), 1904–1918. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2021.1990772
  4. Krisztin, T., & Piribauer, P. (2022). A Bayesian approach for the estimation of weight matrices in spatial autoregressive models. Spatial Economic Analysis, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2022.2095426
  5. Mozdzen, A., Cremaschi, A., Cadonna, A., Guglielmi, A., & Kastner, G. (2022). Bayesian modeling and clustering for spatio-temporal areal data: an application to Italian unemployment. Spatial Statistics, forthcoming.
  6. Visconti, E., Tsigkanos, C., & Nenzi, L. (2022). WebMonitor: Verification of Web User Interfaces. Proceedings of the 37th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Automated Software Engineering, 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1145/3551349.3559538

2021

  1. Glocker, C., & Piribauer, P. (2021). Digitalization, retail trade and monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 112, 102340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102340
  2. Glocker, C., & Piribauer, P. (2021). The determinants of output losses during the Covid-19 pandemic. Economics Letters, 204, 109923. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109923
  3. Hauzenberger, N. (2021). Flexible Mixture Priors for Large Time-varying Parameter Models. Econometrics and Statistics, 20, 87–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.06.001
  4. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., & Onorante, L. (2021). Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 36(3), 304–327. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2807
  5. Hauzenberger, N., Pfarrhofer, M., & Stelzer, A. (2021). On the Effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s Conventional and Unconventional Policies under Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 191, 822–845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.09.041
  6. Hosszejni, D., & Kastner, G. (2021). Modeling Univariate and Multivariate Stochastic Volatility in R with stochvol and factorstochvol. Journal of Statistical Software, 100, 1–34. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v100.i12
  7. Huber, F., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2021). Dynamic shrinkage in time-varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 36(2), 262–270. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2804
  8. Krisztin, T., & Piribauer, P. (2021). A Bayesian spatial autoregressive logit model with an empirical application to European regional FDI flows. Empirical Economics, 61(1), 231–257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01856-w
  9. Krisztin, T., & Piribauer, P. (2021). Modelling European regional FDI flows using a Bayesian spatial Poisson interaction model. The Annals of Regional Science, 67(3), 593–616. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01856-w
  10. Krisztin, T., Piribauer, P., & Wögerer, M. (2021). A spatial multinomial logit model for analysing urban expansion. Spatial Economic Analysis, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2021.1933579
  11. Rezitis, A. N., & Kastner, G. (2021). On the joint volatility dynamics in international dairy commodity markets. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 65(3), 704–728. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12433
  12. Vana, L., & Hornik, K. (2021). Dynamic Modeling of Corporate Credit Ratings and Defaults. Statistical Modelling, 23(4), 357–375. https://doi.org/10.1177/1471082X211057610

2020

  1. Bartocci, E., Bortolussi, L., Loreti, M., Nenzi, L., & Silvetti, S. (2020). MoonLight: A Lightweight Tool for Monitoring Spatio-Temporal Properties. In J. Deshmukh & D. Nickovic (Eds.), Runtime Verification - 20th International Conference, RV 2020, Los Angeles, CA, USA, October 6-9, 2020, Proceedings (Vol. 12399, pp. 417–428). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60508-7_23
  2. Feldkircher, M., Gruber, T., & Huber, F. (2020). International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves. Journal of Banking & Finance, 113(4), 26–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.03.017
  3. Fischer, M. M., Huber, F., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2020). The regional transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality in the United States. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.03.004
  4. Hauzenberger, N., Huber, F., Pfarrhofer, M., & Zörner, T. O. (2020). Stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2018-0069
  5. Hauzenberger, N., & Huber, F. (2020). Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions. Journal of Forecasting, 39(2), 168–186. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2620
  6. Hauzenberger, N., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2020). Bayesian state-space modeling for analyzing heterogeneous network effects of US monetary policy. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, (forthcoming). https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.06206
  7. Hirk, R., Kastner, G., & Vana, L. (2020). Investigating the dark figure of COVID-19 cases in Austria: Borrowing from the deCODE genetics study in Iceland. Austrian Journal of Statistics, 49(5), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.17713/ajs.v49i4.1142
  8. Huber, F., Koop, G., Pfarrhofer, M., Onorante, L., & Schreiner, J. (2020). Nowcasting in a Pandemic using Non-Parametric Mixed Frequency VARs. Journal of Econometrics, (forthcoming). https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.12706.pdf
  9. Huber, F., Koop, G., & Onorante, L. (2020). Inducing Sparsity and Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2020.1713796
  10. Huber, F., Pfarrhofer, M., & Piribauer, P. (2020). A multi-country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis. Journal of Forecasting, 39(6), 911–926. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2667
  11. Kastner, G., & Huber, F. (2020). Sparse Bayesian Vector Autoregressions in Huge Dimensions. Journal of Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2680
  12. Krisztin, T., Piribauer, P., & Wögerer, M. (2020). The spatial econometrics of the coronavirus pandemic. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 13(3), 209–218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-020-00254-1
  13. Nenzi, L., Bartocci, E., Bortolussi, L., Loreti, M., & Visconti, E. (2020). Monitoring Spatio-Temporal Properties (Invited Tutorial). In J. Deshmukh & D. Nickovic (Eds.), Runtime Verification - 20th International Conference, RV 2020, Los Angeles, CA, USA, October 6-9, 2020, Proceedings (Vol. 12399, pp. 21–46). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60508-7_2
  14. Nikravech, M., Kwan, V., Dobernig, K., Wilhelm-Rechmann, A., & Langen, N. (2020). Limiting food waste via grassroots initiatives as a potential for climate change mitigation: a systematic review. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba2fe

2019

  1. Visconti, E., Tsigkanos, C., Hu, Z., & Ghezzi, C. (2019). Model-driven design of city spaces via bidirectional transformations. 2019 ACM/IEEE 22nd International Conference on Model Driven Engineering Languages and Systems (MODELS), 45–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10270-020-00851-0
  2. Vissat, L. L., Loreti, M., Nenzi, L., Hillston, J., & Marion, G. (2019). Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Properties of Stochastic Systems Using TSTL. ACM Trans. Model. Comput. Simul., 29(4). https://doi.org/10.1145/3326168

Working papers

  1. Mozdzen, A., Wertz, T., Iorio, M. D., Cremaschi, A., Kastner, G., & Eriksson, J. (2025). Repulsive mixtures via the sparsity-inducing partition prior. https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25860
  2. Mozdzen, A., Addo, F., Krisztin, T., & Kastner, G. (2024). Bayesian nonparametric partial clustering: Quantifying the effectiveness of agricultural subsidies across Europe. https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.12868
  3. Parzer, R., Filzmoser, P., & Vana-Gür, L. (2024). Data-Driven Random Projection and Screening for High-Dimensional Generalized Linear Models (No.2410.00971; Number 2410.00971). arXiv.org E-Print Archive. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.00971
  4. Parzer, R., Vana-Gür, L., & Filzmoser, P. (2024). spar: Sparse Projected Averaged Regression in R (No.2411.17808; Number 2411.17808). https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.17808
  5. Pfeiffer, P., Vana-Gür, L., & Filzmoser, P. (2024). Cellwise robust and sparse principal component analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.15612
  6. Schwendinger, B., Schwendinger, F., & Vana-Gür, L. (2024). Automated Model Selection for Generalized Linear Models (No.2404.16560; Number 2404.16560). https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2404.16560
  7. Huber, F., Koop, G., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2020). Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-varying Parameter Models using Integrated Rotated Gaussian Approximations.
  8. Pfarrhofer, M., & Stelzer, A. (2019). The international effects of central bank information shocks.

Book chapters

  1. Frühwirth-Schnatter, S., & Kastner, G. (2023). Bayesianische Inferenz. In J. Gertheiss, M. Schmid, & M. Spindler (Eds.), Moderne Verfahren der Angewandten Statistik (pp. 1–34). Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-63496-7_23-2
  2. Feldkircher, M., Huber, F., & Pfarrhofer, M. (2020). Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressions, Panel VARs, and Global VARs. In Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data (pp. 65–93). Springer.